Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, 2023, marked a devastating escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The unprecedented brutality of the assault, involving mass killings, kidnappings, and the deliberate targeting of civilians, sparked a fierce Israeli response and set off a chain of events that have reshaped the Middle East. The attack not only obliterated the prospect of Palestinian statehood but also led to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, weakened Iran’s regional influence, destabilized Iraq, and shifted the future of both Gaza and the West Bank.
Meanwhile, the credibility of the United Nations as a mediator in the Middle East has been permanently damaged, with its agencies accused of perpetuating corruption and bias against Jews. These developments signify the dawn of a new era in the Middle East, with old structures collapsing under the weight of their failures.
The Death of a Palestinian State
Hamas’ actions obliterated any remaining viability for a Palestinian state, shattering global support and exposing the deep flaws in Palestinian leadership.
Global Outrage
The barbarity of Hamas’ attack shocked even the most sympathetic international observers. Western nations that had previously advocated for a two-state solution condemned Hamas unequivocally, while Arab states that had normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords distanced themselves from Hamas. Governments and organizations once vocal in their support for Palestinian statehood began to emphasize Israel’s right to self-defense over calls for negotiations.
Hardline Israeli Policy
The attack unified Israeli society around a hardline approach to security and territorial integrity. The Israeli government, backed by rare political consensus, adopted policies aimed at dismantling Hamas entirely and consolidating Israeli control over strategic areas. Discussions of annexation gained traction, particularly in the context of the West Bank, where Israeli settlements have expanded significantly.
Internal Palestinian Divisions
The rift between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) widened irreparably. Hamas’ actions undermined the PA’s already weak credibility, leaving no unified Palestinian leadership capable of representing the people or negotiating on their behalf. The lack of a coherent strategy or leadership further discredited the Palestinian cause on the global stage.
End of the Right of Return
The international community, long frustrated by the Palestinian leadership’s refusal to compromise on the “right of return,” has shifted toward resettling Palestinian refugees in neighboring Arab states. This shift aligns with global norms for refugee integration and abandons the unique framework maintained by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which has perpetuated statelessness and dependency for decades.
Potential Annexation of Gaza and the West Bank
U.S. Support Under Trump
The incoming Trump administration is likely to endorse Israeli annexation policies, including discussions of both Gaza and the West Bank. This aligns with Trump’s previous pro-Israel policies, including the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and U.S. support for annexation efforts.
Trump’s backing would provide Israel with diplomatic cover for such moves but could also heighten regional tensions. At the same time the major players in the region are tired and fed up with the Palestinian focus on violence and war with no focus on nation building.
Regional stability is now the priority and the Palestinian cause is a primary source of destabilization and Iran’s influence. Hamas’s actions helped achieve a new sense of stabilization, not seen since the Ottoman Empire, by destroying both the Palestinian cause and Iranian influence. The regional Arab powers will jump on the opportunity this situation now offers.
Challenges of Annexation
- Demographic Concerns: Annexing Gaza and parts of the West Bank would bring millions of Palestinians under Israeli control, creating significant demographic and political challenges. Managing such a large, hostile population would require extensive resources and could destabilize Israel’s internal politics.
- Security Issues: Gaza and the West Bank have long been focal points of militant activity. Annexation would likely provoke continued resistance, requiring permanent Israeli military oversight.
- International Opposition: Annexation would face condemnation from the European Union, United Nations, and many Arab states, which view it as a violation of international law and a further obstacle to peace.
- Economic Costs: Reconstruction and integration of annexed territories would require billions of dollars, with limited international support if annexation occurs unilaterally.
Opportunities of Annexation
- Strategic Control: Annexation would allow Israel to fully control its borders, reducing the threat of weapons smuggling and militant incursions.
- End to Ambiguity: Israel could establish definitive territorial boundaries, reducing disputes over contested areas and securing its future as a Jewish state.
- Potential Regional Backing: With strong support from a Trump-led U.S. administration and tacit approval from some Arab states prioritizing stability, Israel could frame annexation as part of a broader security strategy for the region.
The Collapse of the Iranian Axis
Iran’s strategy of using proxies to expand its influence suffered a critical blow in the wake of Hamas’ attack and Assad’s collapse. Tehran’s carefully constructed network—including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and militias in Iraq and Syria—is now significantly weakened.
Hezbollah’s Challenges
Hezbollah, Iran’s most prominent proxy, faces logistical challenges after the loss of Syria as a supply hub. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions and supply lines have degraded the group’s capabilities, leaving it isolated and vulnerable.
Weakened Iraqi Militias
In Iraq, Iranian-backed militias are experiencing greater isolation. The fall of Assad and shifting regional alliances have reduced their operational reach. Additionally, growing opposition within Iraq to Iranian influence has further eroded their position. Iraqi leaders have increasingly sought to assert sovereignty and reduce Tehran’s control, reflecting a broader trend of diminishing Iranian influence in the country. Meanwhile, ongoing domestic unrest fueled by Iranian-backed factions has created new vulnerabilities for Tehran in Iraq.
Regional Realignment
The Abraham Accords and other regional agreements have gained renewed momentum as Arab states prioritize economic partnerships and stability over ideological opposition to Israel. This has further isolated Iran and its proxies.
The Fall of Assad
On December 7, 2024, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell as rebel forces seized Damascus. This marked the culmination of years of civil war, economic collapse, and international isolation, all exacerbated by the destabilization following Hamas’ attack.
Disruption of Iranian Support
Assad’s regime relied on Iranian financial and military backing, which was severely disrupted by Israel’s intensified strikes on Iranian assets in Syria. These strikes crippled Tehran’s ability to sustain Assad’s forces, leaving him vulnerable to opposition offensives.
International Isolation
Assad’s alliance with Iran and his tacit support for Hamas further alienated him from the Arab world. Countries that had begun normalizing relations with Syria reversed course, unwilling to risk association with a regime tied to Tehran’s destabilizing influence.
The Reckoning for the United Nations
The events following October 7 have exposed the deep corruption and biases within the United Nations, particularly its agencies involved in the Palestinian refugee crisis.
UNRWA’s Role and Collapse
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has faced growing criticism for perpetuating dependency rather than resolving the refugee crisis. Its collaboration with Hamas, including the use of UN facilities for storing and firing weapons and spreading anti-Israel propaganda, has discredited it as a neutral actor. These revelations have led to repeated calls for its dissolution.
UN Credibility Crisis
The UN’s failed, (looked the other way) to address broader regional crises, such as the Syrian civil war and the massive death toll and refuggee crisis associated with this war. At the same time the UN prioritized support for Hamas. The result is severe damage to its credibility. Many now view the UN as biased and incapable of serving as a neutral mediator in the Middle East and beyond. The UN is today a corrupt and broken organization having achieved nothing to stop global conflicts in decades.
The combined effects of Hamas’ attack, the death of Palestinian statehood, Assad’s fall, and the collapse of the Iranian axis have reshaped the Middle East:
- Israel’s Strategic Gains: Israel is poised to consolidate territorial control and strengthen alliances with Arab states.
- Iran’s Waning Influence: Tehran’s regional strategy is crumbling as its proxies lose support and capabilities, particularly in Iraq and Syria.
- A Pragmatic Approach to Palestinian Refugees: The international community is shifting toward resettlement and integration as a solution to the Palestinian refugee crisis, the exact opposite of what the UN has promoted for almost 80 years.
- UN Marginalization: The UN’s bias and failures have relegated it to a diminished role in the region and eroded its credibility globally.
- Trump Presidency: For all of Trump’s shortcomings, his view towards the United Nations has been spot on. The UN will face defunding and it’s role will be further diminished under a Trump administration.
The Expansion of the Abraham Accords
The aftermath of Hamas’ attack has accelerated the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which began in 2020 with the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
Renewed Momentum
The violence unleashed by Hamas highlighted the shared security concerns between Israel and Sunni Arab states, particularly regarding Iranian-backed proxies. The attack underscored the importance of cooperation in countering threats posed by extremist groups and their sponsors. This has created a renewed sense of urgency to deepen existing agreements and bring new states into the fold.
Key Developments
- Saudi Arabia’s Role: Talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which had been progressing before the attack, have gained new momentum. Riyadh, recognizing the strategic benefits of closer ties with Israel, has signaled its willingness to move toward normalization, especially as its relationship with Iran remains fragile despite recent détente efforts.
- Oman and Qatar: These Gulf nations, historically hesitant to normalize relations with Israel, are reevaluating their positions. The shared threat of Iranian influence and the need for economic partnerships have made normalization more attractive.
- Africa’s Growing Participation: Following Sudan’s normalization, other African nations with historical ties to Israel, such as Niger and Chad, are exploring formal agreements. These moves reflect Israel’s growing role as a regional economic and security partner.
- Economic and Technological Cooperation: The expansion of the Abraham Accords has emphasized joint ventures in technology, agriculture, energy, and defense. New agreements have been proposed to develop shared water resources, enhance trade networks, and create collaborative technology hubs.
Impact on the Palestinian Issue
The expansion of the Abraham Accords further sidelines the Palestinian leadership, which has historically opposed normalization with Israel. Arab states are increasingly prioritizing economic growth and regional stability over the Palestinian cause. While lip service is still paid to the importance of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the practical focus has shifted toward fostering peace and cooperation with Israel.
The Future is Promising
These developments mark the end of an era defined by entrenched conflicts and the beginning of a pragmatic reordering of the Middle East. While challenges remain, the region is moving toward stability and alliances that reflect the realities of a post-Hamas era.